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e-Therapeutics (ETX.L) - ‘success-predictive’ drug discovery may be the key to new treatment horizons
ETX.L
Full Report by Objective Capital , Nov 18, 2008 (login for full report)
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Key Points:

  • If e-Therapeutics has its way, the last frontiers of therapeutic medicine are about to fall – The treatment of complex, intractable or poorly treated disease remains one of the richest sources of un-mined blockbuster areas of modern therapeutic medicine. e-Therapeutics’ predictive drug discovery platform is aimed at providing a solution.

  • Drug development failure rates remain high despite advances in biology – Only 2-3% of drugs identified as therapeutically relevant eventually make it to market. e-Therapeutics’ drug discovery technology is aimed at identifying drugs that circumvent the uncertainties of drug development by identifying drug candidates that offer efficacy and safety.

  • Identification of low-redundancy targets with minimal extraneous interactions are the key – e-Therapeutics uses powerful computers, integrated databases and sophisticated scientific approaches to overcome the pitfalls of searching for a ‘needle in a haystack’ in large, complex, ‘noisy’ data systems. The result is a ‘predictive’ system that looks for drugs that avoid ‘leakiness’ in efficacy and tolerance/side-effect interactions with healthy pathways and tissues.

  • The current focus is on re-positioned compounds – e-Therapeutics has opted to focus first on re-positioning drugs developed for other applications. This represents the ‘low hanging fruit’ for this technology as it throws up drugs with full regulatory monographs and therefore much shorter development times.

  • Clinical validation and the road to glory – As with all highly innovative pharma development science, the proof of the pudding remains successful clinical trials that are confirmatory of the predictions of the system. In the end, only clinical outcomes that match the predictions of the system in both efficacy and safety will give this approach the credibility that is needed for e‑Therapeutics to become a perceived ‘player’ in the pharma discovery game.

  • First ‘Proof of Principle’ trials should give early indications – The small PoP asthma and depression trials should provide some early insights as to safety and some indication as to whether the predicted efficacy parameters are confirmed. The trials are not statistically powered for efficacy but should give sufficient data to feed into potential licensees.

  • Valuation is indicative and preliminary only – The valuation work presented here is illustrative in nature. But, should the clinical outcomes match the predictions, what is now highly speculative could rapidly transition into a goldmine of opportunity. Investors, watch this space!

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